WORKLOAD RISK CURVE™ -TESSA VAN NES

Five phases.

Always the same

creeping pattern.

Employees don't suddenly slide from high performance to burnout. It's a gradual process — invisible to those around them and often to themselves. The Workload Risk Curve™ makes this pattern visible, so you can act in time — before performance loss, turnover or absence occurs.

THE FRAMEWORK

From sustainable performance to collapse — and back

The Workload Risk Curve™ describes the five phases employees go through when work pressure causes stress and recovery to become chronically out of balance. Each phase has recognisable signals — but only physiological measurement reveals how overloaded someone truly is.

Click on a phase tab to see the signals — and what it means for your organisation.

Which phase do you recognise in your employees?

1. SUSTAINABLE HIGH PERFORMANCE

Stress & recovery in balance

What does this look like?

Flexible and adaptive under pressure
Clear thinking, even in complex situations
Connects easily with others
Stable energy throughout the day
Recovers quickly after intensive periods

This is the goal. Employees in phase 1 perform sustainably — without burning themselves out. They are effective, connected and resilient.

Important to know: many employees believe they are in phase 1. Physiological measurement often shows something different. The perception of performance is not the same as the reality of recovery.

EXAMPLE MEASUREMENT — SUSTAINABLE HIGH PERFORMANCE

A nervous system in phase 1 shows the following pattern in a Firstbeat measurement:

Sufficient recovery during the day — the line visibly alternates between stress and relaxation
Normal, healthy stress response to stimuli
Sufficient movement and physical activity
Restorative sleep — the nervous system genuinely comes to rest

2. DRIVEN PERFORMANCE

High performance on willpower

What does this look like?

High ambition, lots of energy — but it costs more than it appears
Performance is fine — often seen as a high performer
Keeps going on perseverance
Recovery capacity declining gradually — without it being noticeable
Still feels fine — the physiological data reveals the risks

Why is this the most dangerous phase?

Phase 2 is the most dangerous phase to miss. Employees are performing excellently and showing no visible signals. They often believe they are doing well — and are assessed as such by those around them.

But their nervous system is already compensating. Simple adjustments can still easily bring someone in phase 2 back to phase 1. Waiting until phase 3 or even 4 means a considerably longer road back.

EXAMPLE MEASUREMENT — DRIVEN PERFORMANCE

A nervous system in phase 2 shows the following pattern:

High energy consumption — many stress responses in the system
Recovery visibly decreasing — fewer green periods during the day
Sleep appears normal, but recovery value is already declining

5. COLLAPSE

System can no longer compensate

What does this look like?

Burnout or long-term sick leave
System is exhausted and can no longer function — not even with willpower
Extended recovery trajectory — an average of 9 to 12 months
High costs for the organisation
Significant impact on team, department and results

This could have been prevented

Phase 5 often appears to come unexpectedly — but the physiological data would have made this visible months earlier. Collapse is rarely a surprise if you have the right data. It is always the endpoint of a creeping process that began in phase 2.

The costs of one long-term absence case — in time, money, team dynamics and reputation — are many times higher than early intervention. That is not meant as criticism. It is a reason to measure earlier.

Measurement in phase 5

In phase 5, measurement is often no longer the first priority — recovery is. But the data from the weeks and months before would already have shown the pattern: structurally no recovery, chronically high stress levels, and a nervous system that had been operating above capacity for a long time.

Phase 5 is the reason why measuring early is not a luxury — it is leadership.

4. FUNCTIONAL BURNOUT

Performance visibly declining

What does this look like?

Concentration and decisiveness declining
Emotional reactivity increasing — more irritability
Chronic fatigue, even after sleep and rest
Reduced motivation and engagement
Still functioning — but requires increasingly more effort

The nervous system has been under too much strain for a long time

The signals are now becoming visible to those around them — but the physiological impact has been present for much longer. Recovery takes months. There has also been a considerably longer impact on the environment than those around them realise.

People in phase 4 can sometimes still perform reasonably well in the short term — through sheer willpower. But the quality of work, leadership and decisions is already significantly compromised, even if that isn't always immediately visible.

EXAMPLE MEASUREMENT — FUNCTIONAL BURNOUT

A nervous system in phase 4 structurally shows:

Little to no recovery during the day — the graph is predominantly red
Little recovery during sleep — the nervous system stays 'switched on'
Relaxation is no longer recovery — the system can no longer regulate itself
High stress peaks at moments that would normally not be a problem

3. NERVOUS SYSTEM DYSREGULATION

No balance between stress and recovery

What does this look like?

Recovery capacity structurally reduced
Sleep quality declining — often unnoticed
Constant background tension, even during rest
Harder to relax — even at weekends
Head full of thoughts, more ruminating than usual

The tipping point

This is the tipping point. Intervention in phase 3 is still very possible, but already requires more time and attention than in phase 2. Waiting until phase 4 means a much longer, more costly road back.

The treacherous part: people in phase 3 are still functioning. They don't call in sick. But the impact on the nervous system is already significant — and is beginning to take its toll on the quality of decisions, relationships and output.

EXAMPLE MEASUREMENT — NERVOUS SYSTEM DYSREGULATION

A nervous system in phase 3 shows the following pattern:

No longer any balance between stress and recovery — the graph remains predominantly red
Number of stress responses increasing
Sleep quality declining — the system stays 'switched on' at night
Resting is no longer automatically recovering

THE HIDDEN DANGER

The

Hidden Stress Zone.

Phases 2 and 3 are the Hidden Stress Zone. Employees in these phases are still functioning. They don't call in sick. They don't complain. And they structurally underestimate how overloaded they are — because high achievers learn early on to treat signals as normal.

Phase 2

Driven Performance

Performing excellently. Seen as a high performer. The nervous system is already compensating — but nobody sees it.

Phase 3

Dysregulation

Feels the tension, but attributes it to being busy. Sleep deteriorates. Recovery capacity declining. Still functioning and showing up.

100.000+ Firstbeat stress & recovery measurements that on average about 61% of employees are in the 'Hidden Stresszone'.

Self-reporting does not capture this. Leaders and employees who are used to pushing through will sometimes even see stress as weakness — and therefore minimise or normalise signals. Only physiological measurement reveals what is really happening here.

That is precisely why overload often only becomes visible for leaders at the moment of collapse — while a measurement could have shown it months earlier.

50%

of participants adjust their behaviour immediately after the first measurement. (Firstbeat data, 100,000+ measurements)

+14%

average improvement in stress-recovery balance already at the second measurement (own trajectories)

+9.3

average client satisfaction — participants value the insight that data provides

WHY MEASURE?

What self-reporting can never do

Questionnaires and conversations are useful — but they measure what people think or want to say, not what is physiologically really happening.

In the Hidden Stress Zone, that difference is crucial.

Employees who are used to performing under pressure normalise signals. They give socially desirable answers, even when they don't consciously intend to. Not out of calculation — but because their frame of reference has shifted.

Physiological measurement via heart rate variability (HRV) bypasses this. The nervous system does not lie. It objectively records the balance between stress and recovery — 24 hours a day, at work and at home, including sleep.

That is the only type of data that you as a leader or organisation can rely on if you want to intervene early.

THE NEXT STEP

Know within 30 days

which phase your team is really in

The Team Stress & Recovery Scan™ objectively measures the stress-recovery balance of your employees. Not based on questionnaires — physiological data that reveals what self-reporting never can.

Schedule a free 20–30 minute conversation

No obligations. No sales pitch. Simply seeing whether it fits.

Five phases.

Always the same

creeping pattern.

​

From sustainable performance to collapse — and back

​

1. SUSTAINABLE HIGH PERFORMANCE

Stress & recovery in balance

The

Hidden Stress Zone.

​

50%

of participants adjust their behaviour immediately after the first measurement. (Firstbeat data, 100,000+ measurements)

+14%

average improvement in stress-recovery balance already at the second measurement (own trajectories)

+9.3

average client satisfaction — participants value the insight that data provides

What self-reporting can never do

​

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